FINALS FAILURE
The battle for this year's Supercars championship could be over for the majority of drivers following the upcoming flyaway visit to Taupo in New Zealand.
Despite a major scoring shake-up, which is intended to keep the championship fight alive until the very last race in Adelaide, Supercars has missed a golden opportunity to completely revamp the round-by-round points table.
Qualification for the Finals is really based on the antiquated scoring system introduced in 2008 to ensure everyone got points, after teams whined about needing something positive to report to their sponsors and brands on Monday morning
The points' allocation is a bit like the current school system of getting a “Well Done’ ribbon for completing the curriculum.
So, with a major overhaul of the championship for 2025, why was the points' allocation not investigated and revised?
It's already fair to say – after just the Sydney 500 and rain-shortened AGP races –that the Top 10 for season 2025 has been set.
That means there are only three or four drivers still realistically racing for the Sprint Cup and, ultimately, progression to the Finals.
So, has Supercars got the right recipe for its new-look championship format?
It's probably best to back up to unpick the new system.
New Format: The season is now split into segments: the Sprint Cup, Enduro Cup, and the Finals, with the Finals featuring a points re-set and bonus points for title contenders.
Sprint Cup: The new Sprint Cup format started at Sydney Motorsport Park and ends in August at Queensland Raceway. It's business as normal, as rounds feature a mix of three races of 120 and 200 kilometres – except for the Grand Prix, which ironically was a 310 kilometres.
The driver with the most points after Round 8 receives the Sprint Cup, and cements themselves into one of the 10 berths in The Finals.
Enduro Cup: This part is run over the two long-distance contests, The Bend 500 (previously Sandown 500) and the Bathurst 1000. As for the Sprint Cup, the winning lead driver only will advance to The Finals.
Does it undermine the status of the Bathurst 1000? Many say yes.
The Finals: The Top Ten drivers will have their points re-set to 3000, in the same was as the NASCAR play-offs.
The battle then goes to a knock-out format, with three drivers eliminated after the Gold Coast 600, as the remaining seven rest at 4000, as all drivers are still accumulating points.
After the Sandown 500, now with a twin 250-kilometre format, four drivers will head to the Adelaide 500 and one will be crowned as the 2025 Supercars Champion.
So, where is the missed opportunity and why are things already nearly set?
Our analysis shows that on the three-race weekend format, the differential between first and third places is only 12 points – and 22 points for the longer Sunday races.
That might seem like a clear gap, and something that would be easy to make up, but not if you look at championship history.
Even after just two rounds in the 2025 Supercars Championship, fourth-placed Chaz Mostert is already 134 points behind leader Will Brown. Tenth-placed Nick Percat is 223 points behind.
This may be a case of ‘must do better’, but there is little or no chance of overcoming this gap through the rest of the Sprint Cup.
So the Sprint winner for '25 will be either Will Brown, Cam Waters or Broc Feeney.
Under the new format, only another eight spots will be available for drivers as their points continue to accumulate. Even at this early stage, it looks unlikely that the Top 10 will change much.
Is this too harsh? Recent history suggests not.
In 2021, Shane Van Gisbergen led the championship after Round 2 at Sandown and went on to win the crown.
In 2022, SvG again led the Championship after Round 2 at Albert Park and went on to win the crown.
In 2023, Brodie Kostecki led the championship after Round 2 at Albert Park and went on to win the crown.
In 2024, Will Brown led the championship after Round 2 at Albert Park and went on to win the crown.
If the point-scoring system rewarded winning, instead of turning up, a scoring system like the one in MotoGP might have produced a different contest.
Using the NASCAR example, where race winners automatically qualify for their Playoffs regardless of points, could also create more uncertainty and excitement.
So it looks like a lost opportunity, as a full overhaul of the way points are awarded, could have been more worthwhile than just a re-set for each of the three stages in the championship.
Putting more emphasis on winning and podium places would have made it possible for a driver to drag themselves into contention, even if they were only 10th or 12th after the early races.
But 2025 is new and different and the success of the new series structure will only become clear once the final race is run and won in Adelaide.